I call this SEAT OLF YOUR PANTS Forecasting.
Today’s post is by Ronald D. Southard, CEO at SafeSourcing Inc.
The Judgmental Forecasting Technique involves the use of opinion, experience, and judgment; and is often used when there is little information about a specific set of circumstances. It is usually defined as that which uses instinct along with other resources to predict what may happen. Executive decisions can be made on the bases of these feelings. It goes beyond purely statistical techniques and encompasses what people believe is going to happen. It is in the realm of intuition, interdepartmental committees, market research, and executive opinion.
I call this seat of your pants forecasting, and it is often what gets companies into trouble and aggravates their customers. Generally, this results from what historically were small business that grew too fast and had not yet acquired technology to support their forecasting. You often hear comments in an environment like this such as I’ve been at this for years, and we know what we are doing? Unfortunately, this practice is still widespread today.
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